A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
